南华期货《海外央行观察系列》②：2022年1月美联储FOMC会议纪要简评

加息方面

大多数与会者指出，如果通货膨胀没有像他们预期的那样下降，FOMC将比预期更快地收紧货币政策。对于加息的时点，与会者更倾向于在接下来的会议中进行，未透露可能一次加息50个基点的线索。

与会者认为通胀显著高于2%目标水平，对于加息的措辞改为“很快会进行加息”。

Most participants noted that， if inflation does not move down as they expect， it would be appropriate for the Committee to remove policy accommodation at a faster pace than they currently anticipate．

With inflation well above 2 percent and a strong labor market， the Committee expects it will soon be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate．

缩表方面

会议纪要中新增的新信息是MBS可能被主动缩表，以及大幅度缩表是适当的。

与会者并没有讨论缩表步骤的细节，只提及当前的经济和金融环境可能保证此次缩表的节奏将快于2017年-2019年的紧缩周。

Participants agreed that the Committee should reduce the Federal Reserve’s securities holdings over time in a predictable manner primarily by adjusting the amounts reinvested of principal payments received from securities held in the SOMA． They also agreed that the SOMA should hold primarily Treasury securities in the longer run． Regarding these two principles， many participants commented that sales of agency MBS or reinvesting some portion of principal payments received from agency MBS into Treasury securities may be appropriate at some point in the future to enable suitable progress toward a longer-run SOMA portfolio composition consisting primarily of Treasury securities．

While participants agreed that details on the timing and pace of balance sheet runoff would be determined at upcoming meetings， participants generally noted that current economic and financial conditions would likely warrant a faster pace of balance sheet runoff than during the period of balance sheet reduction from 2017 to 2019．

通胀方面

对前景风险的讨论中，与会者对通胀评估的整体论调并没有变化，与会者一致认为，通胀路径的不确定性有所增加，通胀上行风险未消。

In their discussion of risks to the outlook， participants agreed that uncertainty regarding the path of inflation was elevated and that risks to inflation were weighted to the upside．

经济增长方面

关于经济前景，与会者一致认为，大流行的Omicron变异毒株浪潮将影响美国2022年第一季度的经济活动。如果Omicron变异毒株快速消散，经济活动可能会迅速走强，那么2022年美国经济增长总体上将保持强劲。

With regard to the economic outlook， participants agreed that the Omicron wave of the pandemic would weigh on economic activity in the first quarter of 2022． Participants concurred that if the Omicron wave dissipated quickly， then economic activity would likely strengthen rapidly and economic growth for 2022 as a whole would be robust．

就业方面

与会者在讨论当前经济状况时指出，经济活动和就业市场修复已取得显著进展。

大多数与会者认为美国劳动力市场已经达到或非常接近最大就业率的水平。

In their discussion of current economic conditions， participants noted that indicators of economic activity and employment had continued to strengthen．

Participants noted that the labor market had made remarkable progress in recovering from the recession associated with the pandemic and， by most measures， was now very strong．

Many participants commented that they viewed labor market conditions as already at or very close to those consistent with maximum employment， citing indications of strong labor markets including the low levels of unemployment rates， elevated wage pressures， near-record levels of job openings and quits， and a broad shortage of workers across many parts of the economy．