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佘建跃:手把手教你看原油现货市场

2019-06-05 10:37:09    庖丁解油    佘建跃

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原油实货交易(Physical Deal)采取公式计价。公式计价三要素:基准原油、计价期、升贴水(目前给国内交易员搞的只剩贴水了,正贴水和负贴水)

所谓“现货(Spot)”交易,不是一手交钱一手交货的现货。所以,概念上,实货和纸货(Physical & Paper)是一对;现货和远期(Spot & Forward and Future)是一对。实货和纸货强调是不是实物交割(纸货到期既可以现金结算也可以实物交割,如上海国际能源中心(INE)的SC原油期货和芝加哥商品交易所(CME)的WTI原油期货,但大部分的纸货不以交割为目的),实货重在真实的量。纸货(期货、场外掉期、其他衍生品)重在变动的价。现货和远期这组概念强调的是时间,“现货”就是离我们最近的可交易的实物,因为实物原油一般有个生产和销售贸易的准备时间,所以现货并不是说今天买明天就能交的“现货”,一般中东、西非的货都交易两个月之后交付装船的货。而“远期”,既可以是期货这样的标准化远期合约,也可以是针对远期现货价格的其他衍生品交易。

所以,原油的现货市场,就是针对具体油种的船货实物进行交易,但是价格又是未来的随行就市的价格,交易员主要商谈和确定升贴水。路透上有中东、亚太、西非、北海等地的现货市场报道,下面我们看看路透EIKON上的中东现货交易新闻报道。

Middle East Crude- Benchmarks drop; EFS widens - ReutersNews

(中东基准原油下降;EFS拉宽-路透新闻)

2019年5月23日18:02:34

SINGAPORE,May 23 (Reuters) - Middle East crude benchmarks fell although a widerBrent-Dubai spread is supporting spot premiums for Russian ESPO crude, traderssaid on Thursday.新加坡(5月23日路透社)-交易员周四表示,虽然Brent/Dubai价差拉宽支撑了俄罗斯ESPO原油的现货升水,但中东基准原油价格下跌。

Brent& #39;spremium to Dubai crude rose 40 cents to $3.56 a barrel, the highest sinceOctober.DUB-EFS-1M;Brent对Dubai的升水(EFS)上涨40美分至3.56美元/桶,是去年10月份以来的最高值。

Gazprommay have sold its ESPO crude cargo for loading on July 3-13 at $4.70-$4.80 abarrel above Dubai quotes to Chinaoil, they said.Gazprom卖出一船船期为7月3-13日的ESPO原油给Chinaoil(联油),价格为Dubai升水4.70-4.80美元/桶。

ASIA-PACIFICCRUDE: Indonesia& #39;s Pertamina has bought two cargoes of condensate for Julydelivery, trade sources said.亚太地区原油:交易员说,Pertamina(印尼国家石油公司)已经买了两船7月交货的凝析油。(简而言之路透记者就是个包打听)

Thecompany purchased 650,000 barrels of North West Shelf (NWS) condensate fordelivery on July 1-10, while 300,000 barrels of Sharjah condensate from theUnited Arab Emirates will be delivered on July 11-20, they said.据说,该公司购买一船65万桶7月1-10日交割的澳洲西北大陆架凝析油,另一船为30万桶7月11-20日交割的阿联酋Sharjah凝析油。(印尼已经不是石油输出国,现在是净进口国)

BP mayhave sold the cargoes, one of the sources said.据说是英国石油公司-BP出售给印尼的这两船原油。(打死不说谁说的)

China& #39;sFuhaichuang may have bought only one condensate cargo for July arrival and itwas likely to be Escravos, the source said.消息称,中国的福海创石油化工有限公司(一查,原来是福建漳州古雷项目)已经购买了唯一一船7月份到达的凝析油(可能是Escravos)。

Pertaminaand Fuhaichuang have separately issued tenders seeking condensate for Augustdelivery.印尼国家石油公司和富海创公司分别发出8月份船期的凝析油标书。

WINDOW:Cash Dubai& #39;s premium to swaps dropped 24 cents to $2.45 a barrel.

(窗口:Dubai现货与掉期的升水下降了24美分至2.45美元/桶)

窗口(PLATTS搞的一个现货交易平台,这是一个封闭的交易圈,主要参与者是大石油公司、大贸易公司、独立炼油商、投行等,窗口交易的价格会被采纳用于中东基准原油现货价格的评估,如Dubai和Oman):

Totalcontinued to cut its offers for Murban and Das crude cargoes to 15 cents abarrel above their respective official selling prices, down from offers at 30-35cents a day earlier.道达尔继续降低Murban (穆尔班)和 Das(达斯)原油的卖盘价格到官价+15美分/桶,低于前天的+0.30至+0.35降低了。

BP bidfor a July Upper Zakum crude cargo at 60 cents a barrel above its OSP, downfrom a premium of 70 cents on Wednesday.英国石油公司对7月UpperZakum(上扎库姆)原油的买盘报价到官价+60美分/桶,低于周三+70美分/桶的报价。

下表是接近新加坡时间下午4:30时成交的Dubai现货价格。(注意哦,这个价格就是这个月提油的中东货的基准原油价格。如果现货采取5月的平均价,这个价格就是5月其中一天的现货价格。)

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下表是迪拜商品交易所的阿曼价格(下午4:30),迪拜现货价格(这里的CASH DUBAI就是这个意思),两者价差反应阿曼现货的强度(阿曼原油期货就是个现货合约)

PRICES($/BBL)-价格(美元/桶)

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REFINERY(炼油厂)

Asia& #39;s oil refiners areconsidering reducing output after margins slumped to their lowest for theseason since 2003, according to industry sources and Refinitiv data. (Full Story);据业内人士和Refinitiv数据显示(路透搞的一个风险管理系统牌子),鉴于毛利创下2003年来的季节性低估,亚洲炼油厂正考虑削减加工量。

Companiesthat planned to trim output include SK Energy, the Singapore Refinery Company(SRC) and at least one refiner in Thailand, five people familiar with thematter said.据知情人士透露,计划削减产量的公司包括SK能源、新加坡炼油公司-SRC和泰国至少一家炼厂。

In China,independent refiners known as & #39;teapots& #39;, which account for about a fifth of thecountry& #39;s crude imports, operated at below 50% of capacity on average in Aprilthrough May, versus 64% in the first quarter, said Zang Wengang, an analystwith Sublime Information Co.中国独立炼厂-占全国原油进口的1/5,4-5月份的开工率低于50%,而1季度为64%。

NEWS-新闻

The United States should help Venezuela keep controlover U.S. refiner Citgo by preventing its seizure by creditors seeking tocollect on unpaid Venezuelan debts, opposition leader Juan Guaido said in aninterview with Reuters.委内瑞拉反对派瓜一朵对路透记者说,美国将帮助委内瑞拉在美的炼厂Citgo运行(不翻译了)。

Turkey stopped purchasing Iranian oil as of May asU.S. waivers granted last November to eight buyers expired, and will continueto abide by Washington& #39;s demand that it halt all imports of crude oil from theIslamic Republic, a senior Turkish official said.土耳其停止购买伊朗原油……(还是怕美国)

U.S. crude oil inventories rose unexpectedly lastweek, hitting their highest levels since July 2017, due to weak refineryoutput, particularly in the Midwest, the Energy Information Administrationsaid.美国原油库存超预期上涨……(美国EIA每周都公布库存报告,良心呀)

The United Arab Emirates said on Wednesday that theparticipation of several countries in an investigation into last week& #39;s attackon oil tankers off its coast would support the "impartiality andtransparency" of the findings.阿联酋周三说多国参与了对沙特油轮恐袭的调查…..(旁白:一些人会不会贼喊捉贼?)

India& #39;s April crude oil imports jumped to the highestlevel in six months, data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC)of the oil ministry showed on Wednesday.印度4月份原油进口创6个月新高……

Iraq will increase production at its giant West Qurna1 oilfield to 490,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the “next few days”, a seniorIraqi oil official said.

伊拉克将提高其巨型西Qurna油田群的一个油田的产量到49万桶日…..(伊拉克现在是中东产油第二大户,在伊朗和沙特中间)

For crude prices, oil product cracks and refining margins,please click on the RICs below.更多原油价格、成品油裂解价差和炼油毛利数值,按RIC代码进入获取。

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每天都有现货市场的报道,多看看就知道市场都在干嘛。

个人简介:一德期货总经理助理、原油专家佘建跃。汇聚原油产业链基础知识、原油地缘格局以及原油交易实操方法的《原油阳谋论》一书作者。
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